Poilievre Lost, but Carney’s Win May Prove Pyrrhic

Dispatches From the Freeway to Fascism: Part 6

Not that anyone is likely to have noticed, but I accidentally skipped Part 4. That’s the calibre of editing you can expect from my free propaganda newsletter.

The highlight of election night for me was Pierre Poilievre losing to a no-name Liberal. But as much as that (among other things) makes Mr. Poilievre a loser, it doesn’t mean he has lost. And as much as Mark Carney enjoyed a celebratory dance, he may wish to brush up on his Roman classics and learn from Pyrrhus of Epirus before he gets too comfortable in his current role. The lowlight of the night was the defeat of the NDP’s Matthew Green in Hamilton Centre, where the NDP finished third, behind the victorious Liberal and runner up Conservative. I’m especially bummed about Matthew Green because he’s been promoting the kinds of policies that represent a meaningful alternative to the decades of grinding neoliberal austerity we’ve been subjected to in Canada. I hope he runs to be the new NDP leader and I hope he finds a way to purge that party of the careerists, lobbyists, and insiders who have all but destroyed the party of Tommy Douglas.

“Another such victory over the Conservatives, and we’re undone.” — Prime Minister Carnicus of Epirus

I never get the opportunity to put my minor in so-called “Classics” to use. It’s half the reason I started this publication. To shoehorn Greco-Roman shit into contemporary, Canadian politics, because there is truly nothing new under the sun. Thucydides and the Athenian Empire will be making an appearance soon to help explain why the Americans are licking their imperial lips at the thought of taking direct political control over the western hemisphere.

A pyrrhic victory, named after King Pyrrhus of Epirus, occurs when an army defeats its enemy, but at such a great cost that it makes the broader campaign unviable, resulting in a tactical victory, but a strategic defeat. Pyrrhus defeated the Romans in a series of battles, but lost so many men doing it, that he couldn’t win the war in the long-term. He had to end his invasion of Italy, after a final decisive defeat to the Romans. I believe that Mark Carney has won such a pyrrhic victory, with Hamilton Centre’s result acting as a portent of things to come, despite the Liberals winning the seat.

Why?

Well as much as it’s fun to laugh at Pierre Poilievre’s personal misfortune, his party managed to grow its electoral base by making dramatic inroads within key elements of the working class, specifically organized labour. The NDP hemorrhaged votes on two fronts: 1. Urban and suburban, vibes-based, “middle class” progressives who flocked to Mark Carney and 2. Working class, organized labour who flocked to Pierre Poilievre. Of the two groups of NDP expats, it is organized labour which is most likely to propel a party to victory in the next election, which in a minority parliament, could happen anytime.

If I were Pierre Poilievre, I would seek a seat not in a middle class suburb of Ottawa, or a safe rural seat in Western Canada, but rather in Ontario’s rustbelt. I’d take my “boots, not suits” propaganda and name recognition to a riding in or near Windsor, Hamilton, London, or Oshawa. He’d likely mop the floor with the competition in one of those ridings because the NDP fared terribly in these once reliably orangeish areas.

The reason this tactic will enable Milhouse to return to parliament is clear: Mark Carney has nothing to offer the working class and the working class isn’t stupid. It’s not that the Conservatives are offering Canadian workers something different than the austerity, upper class tax cuts, and military spending that Carney is promising. But at least the Conservatives won’t make anyone listen to all the “woke” stuff that the Liberals keep going on about while the mass of Canadians lose their ability to feed, clothe, and shelter their families, often while fending off debt collectors.

In my assessment, the Liberals have maxed out their electoral popularity, especially since Carney represents a return to the more austere, rightwing flank of the party. He’s already ended a tax that only impacts his rich friends. He’s promised to further militarize our society. And he’s offering nothing but more market based “solutions” to the market based crises currently wreaking havoc on the vast majority of Canadian households.

I’m no Nostradamus, but I think Carney’s doubling down on neoliberalism is a recipe for unpopularity with working class people. I think more and more Canadians will either stop voting or will become radicalized by parties of or adjacent to the far right. In the absence of a meaningful socialist, let alone social democratic progressive party, those voters who abandoned the NDP last week in Hamilton Centre will represent but the tip of the iceberg of the rightward move of vast swathes of the working class. Just wait until the impact of trade disruptions and tariffs fully play out and the economy retracts. It’s gonna get fashy fast unless, as I’ve said, some kind of movement, party, or organization gets a grip on what’s happening and starts taking this political moment seriously.

Economic crisis driving the working and “middle” classes to the right is a script we’ve read before. It doesn’t end well and the collapse of the NDP should not be celebrated by anyone concerned with images like this:

Thanks for reading. Like, share, subscribe. Next post will be something of an experiment. I will be joined by Dr. Samir Gandesha (Simon Fraser University) in a conversation about ideology, politics, and the present and future of Canada.